The Republicans aren’t going to take over the state house this election. Not even close. There’s just too many seats and Alabama is too heavily Democratic for that to work. The Montgomery Advertiser has also pointed out that Democrats lead in the most important part of the election — money.
In legislative races, Democrats have outraised Republicans by more than two-to-one. As I try to point out reguarly here, the amount of money the candidates spend in an election is the best indicator of their chances of winning. This doesn’t mean that Democrats are inherently better (despite what Joe Turnham would like you to think). It has more to do with the fact that Democrats have a big incumbent advantage in the Alabama legislature. All things being equal, incumbents are much more likely to win any election, so businesses and other interests who donate to campaigns are more likely to spend their money the incumbent candidate with the lesser risk, who is a Democrat more times than not in this state.
As a somewhat anecdotal comparison, the top Democratic fundraiser is Rep. Seth Hammett, the Speaker of the House, who has collected $886,874, according to the Advertiser. The top Republican fundraiser is Rep. Mike Hubbard of Auburn who is facing a three-way battle against Democrat Carolyn Ellis and Libertarian Dick Clark. He has only managed to raise $370,613, according to the paper.
