As reported by Politics in Alabama and Doc’s Political Parlor, there is a new poll out covering the state-wide races. The Poll was conducted by The University of South Alabama, which is generally very good with these things.
Governor
Riley (R) - 53% Baxley (D) - 33%
No surprise here. Baxley can’t win this election. The only possibility is that Riley loses it with a last minute scandal, but even then it would have to be something crazy — he’d have to come out of the closet or something. Lucky for Bob, he seems to have nothing but heterosexual masculinity emanating from him. Jokes aside, Riley has won this election, and it’s probably good for Alabama.
Lieutenant Governor
Folsom (D) - 43% Strange (R) - 39%
What what what?? You have two things going on here. Folsom leads in bringing name recognition to the race. He has people, including many Republicans, who have voted for him before. Strange has money — lots and lots of money. No one had heard of Luther Strange before 2006, and suddenly everyone who watches television can at least recognize his name and know he is tall. That takes money — lots and lots of money. There are many undecideds in this race, and, in the end, Strange may yet pull a victory. It took millions for him to get 4 points away from Folsom, but he can always get millions more.
Attorney General
King (R) - 38% Tyson (D) - 33%
I have yet to see a single campaign commercial for Tyson, and I read about Troy King’s crusade against perverts and evil doers every day. I hope the public is getting the message that King is a headline-grabber and nothing more. Tyson can still win this race, but he is going to have to get his name out there to convince the undecideds pretty soon.
Secretary of State
Worley (D) - 37% Chapman (R) - 37%
If Beth Chapman can’t manage a win against Nancy Worley, she doesn’t deserve to be Secretary of State. If Worley isn’t beaten, she should be removed from office.
Treasurer
Ivey (R) - 41% Segrest (D) - 30%
If you plan on voting for Steve Segrest, please post a comment and let me know why. Besides the fact that he’s a complete unknown, Kay Ivey has been a great Treasurer so far.
Auditor
Shaw (R) - 34% Clark (D) - 30%
Who cares? This office should probably be removed and the duties assumed by an executively-appointed Inspector General. Republicans will win this one with party-identification alone.
Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries
Sparks (D) - 46% Lipscomb (R) - 29%
This is no surprise. Sparks is the most popular Democrat on the ticket and for good reason. It also doesn’t hurt that the commissioner gets his name pasted on every gas pump in the state.
Public Service Commission, Place 2
Parker (D) - 39% Hooper (R) - 33%
I guess Hooper’s ethical lapses throughout the years and recent allegations of questionable campaign contributions have caught up with him. Hooper will get a boost on election day due to party-identification, but I Think Parker will get this seat.
Chief Justice
Nabors (R) - 40% Cobb (D) - 36%
Cobb is going to need to pump out a few more commercials if she wants to win in November. Nabors has the Republican advantage, which means even more in the judicial races. Alabama’s Supreme Court has not a single Democrat serving. I’m calling this competitive, but Nabors is pretty safe.
So there you have it. Republicans all but have Governor and Treasurer. The Democrats can claim Agriculture Commissioner and can barely claim PSC#2. The rest of the races are competitive enough so that it’s up in the air. Republicans should come out on top.