Alabama’s Congressional District 5 is a swing district, if there ever was one. It consists of the solidly Democratic Lawrence, Colbert, and Jackson Counties and the solidly Republican Limestone and Madison counties. I believe that Lauderdale and the CD5 portion of Morgan County are straight up divided.

The county rankings according to number of voters during the 2006 election cycle are Madison (47%), Lauderdale (13%), Limestone (11%), Colbert (9%), Morgan (8%), Jackson (7%), and Lawrence (5%).

There will naturally be those who disagree with my analysis, maybe those who say because I’m a Republican, I’m trying to spin this. If there’s bias here, it is unintentional. I believe the most objective indicator of party strength is down ballot statewide races, where neither candidate is locally known and little or no money was spent on advertising.

Rep. Cramer has been safe in this seat since the mid-’90’s, but it was growing into a solid Republican seat until the post 2000 census apportionment, which made it a swing or maybe even a slightly Democratic district. During every election since the apportionment, the Republican numbers have crept up in CD5, particulary in the fastest growing county in the district, Limestone and the 2nd fastest growing county, Madison.

As of 2006, all other factors aside, I would say that the district leans slightly Republican and if current growth patterns continue, it will continue to trend toward Republican during the next two cycles.

Of course, there are many other factors that will come into play during the 08′ race for CD5, including what happens at the top of the ticket, the candidates, and the campaigns. Raising a large amount of money in a hurry will be a huge factor, particularly in the primary.

This race will be a political junkie’s dream of observe. I believe both parties will have active primaries with good candidates (although all of them have unique political strengths and weaknesses) but in the end it will be the best campaign and candidate that will win the respective primaries and the general election.